(NEXSTAR) – Roughly a week after skyrocketing seemingly overnight, gas prices in five states are now expected to cool down drastically, one expert predicts.
Last week, the average price for a gallon of gas bolted past $4 in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, which had all generally remained below that benchmark since the conflict began in the Middle East. Prices in Illinois nearly reached $5 a gallon on Wednesday.
The five Great Lakes states were hit hard by “refinery challenges in the region,” on top of refinery maintenance that’s typical for this time of year, explained Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
He added that nearby states like Kentucky, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas could also see prices spike, though not as sharply as they did in the Great Lakes states.
In an update Tuesday, De Haan reported that the aforementioned “refinery challenges” were “clearing up,” which could lead to prices falling 20 to 40 cents per gallon in Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Iowa, Kentucky, and Minnesota could also see a bit of relief.
Diesel prices are expected to cool, too. AAA data shows statewide averages have broken records in Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin this week. Indiana and Ohio were well within historic prices as of Monday night, according to De Haan.
GasBuddy estimates suggest these prices could come down 25 to 60 cents per gallon.
If you’re in or near the Great Lakes states, don’t rush to the pump just yet. It could take another week or two before you notice prices come down, De Haan warned.
He also noted that any price changes could be impacted if the Strait of Hormuz “destabilizes.”
Over the weekend, President Trump announced “Project Freedom,” calling for the U.S. Navy to “guide” vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday said the administration would be pushing for a resolution at the United Nations Security Council that would call on Iran to “cease attacks, mining, and tolling” in the Strait.
The war in Iran remains the primary driver behind elevated prices at the pump. While gas station owners set pump prices, there are multiple influencing factors. The main ingredient is the price of a barrel of crude oil. In the U.S., oil prices represented about 51% of the price of a gallon of gasoline in 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration.
That means when crude oil prices rise, gasoline prices generally follow. Less oil on the market means higher prices for oil and gasoline. And the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets, according to the International Energy Agency, pushing oil prices as high as $112 a barrel in early April.
The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline on Tuesday was $4.483, according to AAA – that’s up more than 30 cents over this time last week. Diesel is sitting at $5.659, up nearly 20 cents.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
